Prices are trying to stabilize but the overall downtrend remains intact.
Weekly RSI continues to diverge suggesting a seasonal low is trying to take root, however, the weekly
MACD 55/89 remains negative and as such there is still room for further downside.
The COT report, as off April 12th, has managed money reducing its net longs by 1,192 to 23,926 contracts while commercials added to their net shorts some 156 contract for total net short position of 10,929. With option expiration behind us the trade should find some support in the 120.20/
118.80 support band.
Failing to hold this area of support would leave the trade vulnerable to a double test of support at the December 17th low of 115.475. This last support point is remarkably close to 61.8% retrace of the multiyear bull market. Since the September 28th low we have been holding around the 50% retrace point of 125.40 but it appears the bulls are losing this battle. So be alert this week.
Having said all this, special attention should be given to support at 118.80 as this is also testing the secondary trend line of highs from above.
Resistance this week should come in at 122.00/124.75. Above this level the trade will encounter weekly resistance at 132.95. On a short term basis the trade is a oversold and that make support at 118.80 of special interest to me